There is growing speculation within political circles that Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), who is currently detained by the military regime, could be released during the tenure of now president, Min Aung Hlaing.
According to Colonel Khun Okka, Chair of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO/NCA-S), such a release may depend on the outcomes of policies implemented by the government formed by Min Aung Hlaing. However, he noted that a release within the first six months is unlikely.
“We need to work toward stability. Now that he has officially become president, it would be appropriate to release Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint, and to pursue political and economic reforms. That’s what we are hearing,” he said.
Following the military coup on February 1, 2021, the armed forces arrested NLD leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and many other senior figures.
In a statement released on April 5th, the NLD said that Myanmar’s political crisis, which arose after the coup, cannot be resolved without engaging in dialogue and negotiations with public leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
A political figure commented that the military would only release Aung San Suu Kyi if it serves their strategic political interests.
“For a major political shift involving someone like Aung San Suu Kyi, we cannot trust anything outright. If they release her, it would likely be a calculated political strategy—perhaps to influence public perception—rather than genuine cooperation. If they truly wanted cooperation, they could have negotiated long ago without needing intermediaries,” he said.
Democratic forces, political groups, as well as ASEAN and the United Nations, have been calling for the release of all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint.
Dr. Nyo Nyo Thin, Chair of Yangon Watch, said that the possibility of Aung San Suu Kyi’s release ultimately depends solely on Min Aung Hlaing.
“What Min Aung Hlaing is thinking is known only to himself. People are merely speculating. I do not want to be part of such speculation. This is something that exists only in one person’s mind. We are not close to the national leader, nor are we part of those who meet with him regularly. So, I cannot make assumptions about what the president is thinking,” she said.
After accusing the 2020 general election of fraud, the military unjustly imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint. Five years after the coup, the military held what critics describe as a sham election, through which Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency.
There are increasing calls for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, who retains strong public support. Excluding her from the political process is seen as worsening the current crisis and delaying efforts to find a peaceful resolution.
