Myanmar political analysts believe that if Mandalay can be captured in the 1027 ongoing operation conducted by the three northern alliances, the current Spring Revolution will be a quick success.
The military junta is fiercely resisting the ongoing operation, leading to intense fighting between the two sides.
Myanmar political analyst U Gyi Myint stated, “The three northern alliances and the PDF have joined forces. If they pose a threat to Mandalay township, the military junta will collapse. I anticipate resistance from Pyin Oo Lwin township. However, if they manage to pass through Pyin Oo Lwin and encircle Mandalay, the spring revolution could conclude swiftly with the combined strength of the three northern alliances.”
The October 27 operation, (aka the 1027 ongoing resistance) is led by a northern alliance of revolutionary forces that includes members of the Arakan Army (ULA/AA), the Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF/TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNTJP/MNDAA), the Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA), and the Mandalay People’s Defense Forces.
The three northern alliances have declared that their operations extend beyond northern Shan State and include Kachin and Sagaing Regions, specifically Htigyaing Township, where fighting is intense.
There is speculation amongst Myanmar’s political circles that China is supporting the operation.
Myanmar political analyst U Htet Myat, speculated that if China does not participate in the operations of the three northern alliances, the conflict might escalate further. Conversely, if China participates behind the scenes, it could potentially remain a more limited battle.
“There are two scenarios to consider. Firstly, if the three northern alliances do not align with China, the conflict might intensify. Without external support, these alliances could become even more formidable. The Chin and the Kachin might unite against these three groups, while simultaneously, armed forces along the Thai border could get involved. According to their intelligence, even Rakhine has already participated in the attack.” he stated.
During the 1027 operation, six townships were captured in northern Shan State and over 170 military junta camps were seized. Following these successes, the three northern alliances announced their intention to proceed to the next stage of their operation.
