Although the National League for Democracy prioritized ethnic affairs and domestic peace throughout its 2015 election campaign with the slogan “Time for change”, it feels like there has been no change on these issues in the NLD four-year term in office.
The electoral promises to prioritize these issues seem to just be building castles in the air.
Consider that the official talks between the government and the National Ceasefire Agreement-Signatories Ethnic Armed Organizations (NCA-S EAO) have been suspended for almost two years, and the continuation of the 21st Century Panglong Union Peace Conference is unclear.
The NCA between the government and eight ethinic armed groups, (before the participation of the New Mon State Party (NMSP) and the Lahu Democratic Union (LDU) was signed four years ago on October 15th. Yet,this year, signatories to the NCA are still negotiating event details to celebrate the 4th Anniversary expected to take place at the end of October.
“As a political revolutionary armed group, we agreed to sign the NCA because we desired to establish a federal union and resolve political issues through political talks,” said General Yawd Serk, Interim Team Leader of the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST).
General Yawd Serk added that apart from paving the way to seek solutions for armed conflict through political dialogue, the NCA is fostering political guarantees within a democractic federal system that involves all parties committed to the process.
“Democracy comes first and then [we] will work on federal system”, NLD spokesperson Dr. Myo Nyunt said at their recent 31st anniversary event.
It can be argued that the NLD’s political viewpoint seems to oppose the implementation of the peace process and its pillars.
“We [can] never move forward if everyone with diverse opinions is asking for different things that they want. Therefore, we need to obtain democracy first and then continue to work on the federal system,” Dr. Myo Nyunt added.
It could be concluded the last Union Peace Conference-21st Century Panglong was just a pretence. It has become more obvious that whether the outcome of the peace conference is successful or not, that is not the focus for the NLD-led government.
Other ethnic parties are at odds with the NLD.
“Establishing a federal union after obtaining democracy is not the right approach, and it is unacceptable. Our country has two main political issues which are democracy and self-determination called federalism. Since democracy and federalism are two sides of the same coin, we need to resolve both issues at the same time, not one at a time,” said Nai Layea Tama, Mon Unity Party Joint Secretary -1.
According to the 2008 constitutional amendment and related documents sent to Hluttaw, it appears that the NLD party does not wish to have a federal system. This makes ethnic people lose their trust in the party and impacts the current peace-building process, Nai Layea Tama argued.
General Yawd Serk made it known that he believes the government hopes to hold the 21st Century Panglong before the national election in January or February 2020. Furthermore according to the General, the government considers the peace process a second priority as a national election is drawing near.
According to an October 12th statement released from Peace Process Steering Team (PPST) there have been discussions to establish the necessary foundation that can guarantee the implementation of the peace process beyond 2020, and the establishment of a federal union. PPST members believe the fourth round of Union Peace Conference-21st Century Panglong Conference must discuss these entwined subjects.
PPST spokesperson Colonel Sai Ngin stated, “We will try to resolve the obstructions, [by having] formal or informal discussions, whichever is acceptable for everyone. After having the solution, we will then resume the 21st Century Panglong.”
These statements coupled with comments made by Nai Layea Tama imply the NLD no longer has a strong desire to pursue the establishment of a federal union that prioritizes the interests of ethnic people.
Ethnic Armed Organizations who are signatories to the NCA will need to strengthen the NCA implementation plans by cooperating with a new government and hold discussions at the union level.
The quarterly meetings regarding the NCA implementation plans that include the government team, Hluttaw [Parliament], representatives of the Tatmadaw [Myanmar military], and NCA signatories have organized a meeting at the end of February in 2018, right before the JICM meeting.
PPST members will hold a meeting before the JICM meeting and the Union Peace Conference, according to PPST Spokesperson Nai Aung Ma Ngae.
The JICM preparatory meeting will take place on October 25th-26th. It will be crucial to monitor these many discussions and the outcomes that may be generated.
