Military junta troop movements continue to increase in Kyainseikgyi Township, Karen State, raising concerns that military tensions in the area could escalate again.
Troops have been arriving continuously from Mawlamyine, Mudon, and Ye townships. Residents notice that military personnel are now seen more frequently in Kyainseikgyi town and along major transportation routes than before.
“Military columns are moving almost every day. There are also many soldiers in Chaungnakwa village. We see troops along that route quite often. However, we do not see as many on the Kyainseikgyi side,” a local resident said.
Residents said the military junta deployed a large number of troops in the Chaungnakwa area to provide security after schools reopened there.
Locals believe these developments could indicate an increase in military operations in the region.
A political analyst said the military junta may be attempting to regain control of Payathonzu, a Thai-Myanmar border area in Kyainseikgyi Township that it previously lost.
“I see the current military buildup as an effort to retake areas they previously lost. It is not only about Payathonzu. They appear to be trying to regain control of other border areas as well,” the analyst said.
The gradual reinforcement of troops and weapons in the Kyainseikgyi area may be part of preparations for military operations targeting Payathonzu, the analyst added.
However, a local resident noted that junta troops are advancing mainly through ground operations, making it difficult for them to reach Payathonzu in the near term.
“Their troops are advancing on foot, so reaching Payathonzu will not be easy. There are also KNU and revolutionary forces along the route. If fighting breaks out, it will likely occur along those routes first. They would have to pass through those areas before reaching Payathonzu,” the resident said.
The resident added that local people are particularly concerned about the possibility of increased airstrikes.
Meanwhile, reports have emerged that the military junta has been requesting the return of Payathonzu town from the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), which is currently responsible for security and administrative affairs in the area.
However, the analyst said the future of Payathonzu does not depend solely on the military junta’s intentions but also on decisions made by the DKBA, which currently administers the area.
“It also depends on whether the DKBA is willing to hand it over. The DKBA’s decision is influenced by the KNU. If the KNU agrees, the DKBA may agree. If the KNU rejects it, the DKBA is unlikely to hand it over. Personally, I do not think they will give up Payathonzu easily. There would likely be fighting first. However, if they can no longer hold it, there is a possibility it could eventually be handed over,” he said.
Analysts noted that Payathonzu is strategically important not only from a military perspective but also economically. The border town could serve as an alternative trade route if disruptions occur along the Myawaddy border corridor.
“If the KNU imposes tighter restrictions on the Myawaddy route, it would become difficult for the military to move goods and people. That could disrupt their economic activities. They understand the instability of the situation, so they want to ensure that if one route becomes unusable, the Payathonzu route remains available,” the analyst said.
However, analysts believe large-scale military operations remain difficult during the current rainy season due to transportation challenges in the region.
Based on current developments, observers say it remains unclear whether tensions in the Kyainseikgyi–Payathonzu area will escalate in the coming months, but the situation warrants close monitoring.
