Although the military junta and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) have agreed to a ceasefire under pressure from China, clashes are still expected to continue, according to Myanmar political analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw.
With the mediation of Chinese Special Envoy Mr. Deng Xijun, a delegation led by TNLA Deputy Commander-in-Chief Tar Jot Jar met with the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) delegation led by Deputy Commander-in-Chief Ko Ko Oo of the State Administration Council in Kunming, China, on October 27 and 28 for the ninth round of talks.
Both sides reportedly agreed that TNLA troops would withdraw from Mogok and Moemeik townships, while the military junta would halt airstrikes and offensive operations in Ta’ang-controlled areas.
However, Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw noted that since the ceasefire applies only to the TNLA, clashes with other resistance groups are likely to continue.
“I think clashes could still happen. The ceasefire is only between the TNLA and the military, not with other groups. So, battles with other resistance forces will go on. I don’t believe Myanmar’s conflict will end easily. Even if China mediates, it’s ultimately up to the people to decide. As long as our people reject the military regime, this civil war will continue,” she said.
Although the TNLA announced its withdrawal from Mogok — captured during the second phase of Operation 1027 — the Mandalay-based People’s Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG) declared that it would continue cooperating with allied revolutionary groups to defend and retain control of the area.
Similarly, the People’s Defense Force’s TRI Strategic Command announced on October 30 that revolutionary activities across Mandalay Region were continuing at full strength and that they would keep fighting until their objectives were achieved.
U Thein Tun Oo, executive director of the pro-military ThayNaGa Institute for Strategic Studies (TISS), composed of former military officers, commented that changes in the junta’s offensive plans were possible depending on conditions in areas controlled by resistance and ethnic armed groups — some of which are also designated as constituencies for the planned election.
“They’re now in a position to create opportunities for themselves. With their operational experience, ground commanders will make decisions based on local realities. Wherever they consider strategically important, they could act accordingly — just like before,” he said.
He added that as the junta prepares to hold elections in December, continued fighting is likely in several constituencies still under the control of revolutionary forces.
While some ethnic armed organizations have agreed to ceasefires due to Chinese pressure, revolutionary groups have declared that they will continue fighting for their shared goals — to achieve a federal democracy and to completely dismantle the military dictatorship.
