Almost all ethnic armed groups, including the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the New Mon State Party (NMSP), the Shan State Army (North), and several others, have experience dealing in ceasefires with the Burmese military regime, but not with ceasefires as final solutions for peace. The ceasefire agreements of fifteen years ago failed to solve the political problems they were intended to, and finally, the fighting between the Burmese Army and many ethnic groups resumed on the eve of the 2010 elections.
Starting twenty years ago, the Burmese Army’s Intelligence Chief, Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt, began leading ceasefire talks. The intelligence officers dealt with all ethnic armed groups on a group-by-group basis. Different ethnic armed groups had and continue to have different goals: while some have higher political aims, others just aspire to control business in their own territories.
The bargaining that resulted between Khin Nyunt and business focused armed groups has been moderately successful. The groups have gained some business benefits, but have ignored the political goals of their own people. These groups are now disappearing, with many of them now working for the Burmese Army (Tatmadaw) after being transformed into ‘Border Guard Force’ militia forces.
The ethnic armed groups have always suffered from the secret or sometimes open ‘divide and rule’ policies of the Burmese Army. Factionalism politics have taken root among armed groups, and the Burmese Army has used any opportunity to create and exploit conflict between the groups.
During Khin Nyunt’s time with the previous SPDC regime, he proudly said that he would build up peace and bring ethnic armed groups back to the ‘legal fold’. But this has not been accurate for the politically motivated armed groups, and they have said that they participated in ceasefire talks with expectations for political dialogue. However, the previous military regime never recognized that there were political problems.
Now, the new proxy civilian government of the Burmese Army, led by former general U Thein Sein, has called for peace by creating different levels of peace committees in parliament and sending local level peace missions to ethnic armed groups to ‘make peace’.
A Burmese proverb says, “If you die one time, then you must realize the cost of the funeral container”. The politically motivated armed groups, like the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Shan State Army (SSA), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Karen National Union (KNU), New Mon State Party (NMSP), and Chin National Front (CNF), have been very careful in accepting peace talks with the new government and their missions. They are hesitant to repeat their past mistakes. They are offering to talk with the regime only as an alliance under the flag of newly formed United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC). However, the government has yet to respond to overtures from the UNFC, preferring to offer ‘ceasefire deals’ only a group-by-group basis as in the Khin Nyunt days.
If President U Thein Sein is truly sincere about achieving peace for the country’s future development and unity among all nationalities as claimed in his political principles, it suggested he follow the steps below:
· First, the president should recognize the ethnic groups’ rebellions as a prolonged problem that needs to be solved.
· Secondly, the president must recognize the ethnic armed groups as political groups that hold arms while they have no choice.
· Third, a genuine political dialogue must be arranged to seek a win-win solution for all.
On the other hand, the ethnic armed groups must have genuine intentions for peace by seeking solutions for the suffering of their own people when dealing with the government. It is also suggested that:
· All ethnic armed groups should be under the same flag of the UNFC. Now, some groups are still outside of the UNFC, and the UNFC needs to think how to deal with them.
· The ethnic groups should have ‘one voice’ for their political demands, and they must see the current peace offer as a good opportunity to deal with the government.
· There is still disagreement among the groups, as some call for being included in a federal union like the United States, while some demand ‘self-autonomous rights’, and others call for their ‘independence’. More consultation between all groups is needed.
· The ethnic armed groups should announce their clear peace agenda with details to let the entire people, including the majority Burmans, know of their plans.
Both government and ethnic armed groups have many interests and issues to agree on. The unity among all ethnic nationalities is also a key agenda. Both sides can agree, and the ethnic armed groups should make it clear that their intention is not to break up the country. Finally, a win-win solution can be found.
