The military junta has stated that an election will be held either in December this year or in January next year.
The upcoming election will take place without the participation of the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party with the most public support, or the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), a major ethnic political party.
Analysts suggest that Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing could assume the presidency after the election.
Daw Nyo Aye from the Rakhine Women’s Network said Min Aung Hlaing appears to be aiming for the presidency. However, she emphasized that the election context must be closely watched.
“He is clearly aiming for that position (the presidency). We can already see that. It’s like watching an elephant walk across a wide field—it’s obvious. But whether he can make it or not will depend on how the election unfolds. We have to listen to what their respective representatives will say and observe how it plays out. But yes, that’s the direction he’s going,” she said.
Given the current situation, she added that this election is unlikely to yield positive outcomes for all, including displaced citizens.
The Union Election Commission (UEC), under the military junta, has announced that elections will be held in 267 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, using both the first-past-the-post (FPTP) and proportional representation (PR) systems.
Political analyst U Kyi Myint said that the military will hold the election by any means necessary and that Min Aung Hlaing will become president. He added that neighboring countries will likely support this outcome.
“The election will happen—it’ll be rigged, of course. Even if it’s only held in about 50 townships, they’ll manipulate it to make it seem legitimate, and Min Aung Hlaing will become president. He’ll declare himself an elected president and announce it to the world. China, Russia, and their allies will support it. India will support it. One side of ASEAN will support it—China’s followers like Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. He will gain considerable strength from that. So how can we stop that?” he said.
U Kyi Myint further stated that although the National Unity Government (NUG) has declared it will do everything possible to disrupt the military junta’s planned election, the election might still proceed.
He noted that ethnic armed organizations are engaged in conflict in their respective territories, which may prevent them from stopping the election completely.
U Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office under the NUG, stated on July 1 that the military-led election would not resolve Myanmar’s current crisis.
“Holding an illegitimate, sham election that goes against the will of the people is a violation of democratic principles and an attempt to unlawfully seize sovereign power. On March 30, 2021, the Committee Representing the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) officially annulled the 2008 Constitution. Therefore, all actions currently being carried out under that constitution by the terrorist military [regime] are illegal and lack legitimacy. This illegal, fake election will not be a solution to Myanmar’s current crisis.”
U Nay Phone Latt urged that revolutionary forces must continue to stand firm on their primary political path—the Federal Democracy Charter and the established political roadmap. He also called on the public to collectively resist and refuse to participate in the election organized by the military junta.
Revolutionary groups have also reaffirmed their commitment to the Federal Democracy Charter and political roadmap, which they regard as their core political framework. U Nay Phone Latt called on the public to collectively resist the military’s election rather than take part in it.
A political analyst noted that people living in military-controlled townships would be unable to oppose the election, as the military junta can operate without constraint. The military has officially registered over 90 political parties, many of which are reportedly closely affiliated with the junta.
According to the 2008 Constitution, 25% of seats in all parliaments are reserved for military appointees. Analysts say that military backing will be required to approve any decisions, regardless of circumstances, and that the post-election political landscape will largely depend on the political ambitions of the Commander-in-Chief.
