Myanmar political analysts say the military junta is attempting to use Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as part of its strategy to seek a way out of its ongoing political crisis.
Since the military coup that took place on February 1, 2021, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Chairperson of the National League for Democracy (NLD), has remained in military detention. Throughout that period, international organizations, diplomats, and the ASEAN have repeatedly requested permission to meet with her, but military authorities consistently deny these requests.
However, on August 3, the junta announced that it had allowed the Myanmar head of of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Mr. Arnaude de Baqque, to hold a private meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
Captain Zin Yaw, a military affairs analyst and member of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), told IMNA that the military leadership has a history of using the popular leader whenever it faces a political crisis. He said the junta is now also attempting to divide revolutionary forces.
“The military generals led by Min Aung Hlaing have reached the final stage of their political crisis, so they are using Amay Suu as the first step. At the same time, under the banner of ‘peace,’ they are engaging with revolutionary groups. Organizations including the TNLA, MNDAA, and CNO/CNDF are reportedly in Naypyidaw. Gradually, they are reducing the number of their enemies while seeking to suppress the struggle of democratic forces,” said Captain Zin Yaw.
Captain Zin Yaw added that reports have emerged suggesting the junta plans to hold a by-election in 2027. Following that, he believes the military intends to use Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as a “peacemaker” in future peace negotiations.
Kim Aris, the son of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, wrote on his social media page that the continued efforts of people speaking out, together with pressure from ASEAN and the international community, have helped keep his mother’s situation under international attention.
Khun Wai Htoo, Secretary of the Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC), said that after the coup, the junta primarily relied on relations with China. Given Myanmar’s current political landscape, he believes the decision to allow an international organization to meet Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is an attempt to reopen engagement with Western countries.
According to Khun Wai Htoo: “The military council has now fully realized that, given Myanmar’s current political situation and the international landscape, relying mainly on relations with China is no longer sufficient diplomatically. Therefore, by allowing the internationally requested meeting with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the junta is making a concession. I see this as the first step toward re-engaging with Western countries.”
Revolutionary groups also suggest that, after five years of military rule, the junta’s inability to gain representation at the ASEAN and the United Nations may have prompted it to create this political opening.
Captain Zin Yaw further argued that after staging what he described as an illegitimate election during 2025–2026 and establishing a new government structure, the military will likely continue using Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners to seek legitimacy for its administration.
“Domestically, they will pursue ceasefires with ethnic armed organizations and hold peace talks. They may amend the constitution and allocate territories or administrative areas to ethnic groups. Then, to gain recognition from the ASEAN and neighboring countries, they are likely to continue using Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and political prisoners as part of their strategy for legitimacy,” he said.
Democracy groups, together with the ASEAN and the broader international community, continue to call for the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners who remain detained by the military junta.
