Discussions surrounding the establishment of a federal army have been widening among ethnic armed organizations and political forces.
On February 7, Shan National Day, General Yawd Serk, Chair of the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS/SSA), stated that forming a federal army is necessary for national defense and security.
Myanmar political analyst Dr. Hla Kyaw Zaw commented that ethnic armed groups are now openly expressing their political positions, and that the issue of establishing a federal army could only arise if the military junta withdraws from politics.
“There’s no point in talking about a federal army right now. It depends on how the military will share the powers it has seized with other groups. Only if the military steps back politically will a federal army become possible. Otherwise, there is no reason to expect it. At present, all the junta’s actions are aimed solely at prolonging its military dictatorship and maintaining its monopolistic grip on power. So, for now, there’s little likelihood of anything happening,” she said.
She added that the first requirement for establishing a federal army is the military’s withdrawal from politics, or at the very least, the sharing of the political powers it currently holds with other stakeholders.
Colonel Khun Okka, Chair of the Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO/NCA-S), stated that forming a federal army depends on the existing political system and the structure of the state.
“It depends on the current political system and the form of the state. Is the country structured as a federal system? Based on that, we must first agree on Security Sector Reform (SSR). Only after thoroughly implementing SSR and achieving political reform can all armed forces unite to defend the country. Then we can systematically form a Federal Union Armed Forces or Defense Forces in line with federal principles. The conceptual framework must come first, followed by practical implementation. It will take considerable time,” he said.
He further emphasized that in nation-building, Security Sector Reform (SSR) is essential. National defense and security issues must be addressed, and the military must be politically restructured.
At present, the situation remains such that there is not yet a clear framework or agenda for discussions on forming a federal army.
Khun Wai Htoo, Secretary of the Pa-O National Federal Council (PNFC), said that it is impossible to establish a federal army without a federal constitution at the union level. He also noted that the current military junta firmly maintains the position that it must remain the country’s sole armed organization.
“In the national security and defense sector, the junta remains directly involved. It firmly holds the position that the Tatmadaw must be the only armed organization in the country. This is a major obstacle to the emergence of a federal army. Therefore, the conditions are not yet favorable for establishing one,” he said.
In addition to longstanding ethnic armed organizations, hundreds of new armed groups have emerged since the military coup on February 1, 2021.
As a result, without a common agreement, various groups pursue differing political objectives, including the overthrow of military dictatorship, the establishment of democracy, federalism, or even confederation.
Observers suggest that successful implementation of Security Sector Reform (SSR) is crucial. It will also be necessary to negotiate and establish integration frameworks to reconcile the differing political goals among existing ethnic armed organizations and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs).
Ultimately, analysts conclude that a federal army can only genuinely emerge depending on agreements regarding the political system, the structure of the state, and comprehensive Security Sector Reform (SSR).
