Armed resistance groups on the ground report that since last August, the Military Commission has conducted daily offensives across southern Myanmar. These have been concentrated in areas where Mon, Karen, and Tanintharyi regions converge. The military are using overwhelming troop numbers and heavy weaponry.
The offensives are aimed at clearing territory in preparation for elections and regaining control of cross-border trade routes. As a result, clashes in southern Myanmar have grown more intense.
In September, the Military Commission seized control of key strategic areas, including sections of the Asian Highway and the Kyainseikgyi–Chaung Hna Khwa road that connects Karen and Mon States, after launching large-scale attacks.
Military analysts warn that the Ye–Dawei Union Highway, which links Mon State’s Mawlamyine to Tanintharyi’s Kawthaung, could face even heavier offensives soon, as the road is vital for communication and transport.
“They will first try to reclaim key infrastructure routes. The Ye–Dawei road is heavily used by resistance groups, so they are likely to attack it fiercely to secure trade and to fully protect Dawei’s deep-sea port economic zone,” one analyst said.
Resistance alliances have already warned the public not to travel at night along the Ye–Dawei road, where the Military Commission’s forces are operating.
Ko Bhaon, spokesperson of the Dawei District Democracy Movement Strike Committee, said that all four townships in Dawei District are under simultaneous large-scale offensives aimed at regaining access to Thai border crossings.
“In Dawei, all four townships are being attacked. Along the Dawei–Thikee road, in Yebyu along the Ma Lel Taung–Kanbauk road, in the Kanbauk–Kalainaung road, and in Launglon Township’s Nabule and Tharyar Chaung areas, offensives are ongoing. They’re using overwhelming force and airstrikes every time battles break out. This kind of simultaneous large-scale attack across many areas has never happened before,” he said.
Resistance groups in southern Myanmar say they will continue counter-offensives despite facing massive troop numbers and heavy air and ground attacks.
Veteran journalists note that while the Military Commission has temporarily regained control of certain areas, resistance forces remain strong, meaning the conflict will likely continue in a back-and-forth struggle.
“In some places, the resistance had to retreat, but they are fighting back using guerrilla tactics. This isn’t just Mon—Karen forces are also deeply involved. Despite the junta’s heavy assaults, the resistance has considerable strength. So the war will continue in a back-and-forth pattern,” one journalist observed.
Although the Military Commission claims it will reopen reclaimed roads quickly, security concerns mean that some routes remain only partially open, and civilian travel is very limited.
A representative of the Mon Human Rights Foundation warned that civilians are likely to suffer more harm from this escalating conflict.
“Civilians are facing greater consequences than before. In areas not under junta control, there are increasing airstrikes, food blockades, and travel restrictions. These disruptions are rising sharply,” the representative said.
According to records, in August alone, human rights violations increased significantly across Mon, Karen, and Tanintharyi. There were 152 arbitrary arrests, 105 detentions, 92 injuries, and 38 extrajudicial killings reported.
In September, the Military Commission continued its daily attacks, using airstrikes and a variety of heavy weapons in southern Myanmar.
