As the military junta’s six-month extension of emergency rule nears its end in late July, political observers are speculating whether the junta will seek to extend its term once again or introduce a new form of administrative structure under a different title.
The military seized power by declaring a state of emergency and has repeatedly promised that elections would be held. With its current six-month term set to expire by the end of this month, debates are intensifying within political circles over what may come next.
Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the 7 Ethnic Armed Organization Alliance, stated that many believe the junta will soon return authority to the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC).
“To be frank, there are many interpretations of the situation. If the SAC (State Administration Council) follows through on what its leader has said—holding elections by December or January—then they may simply hand authority back to the NDSC after July,” he explained.
The junta has already extended the emergency period several times under Article 425 of the 2008 Constitution, ruling the country for more than four years since the 2021 coup.
A political analyst noted that repeated promises of elections suggest the junta may eventually return power to the NDSC, although uncertainty remains.
A representative from the Mon Center for Development also told IMNA that two scenarios are likely when the current term ends in late July.
“When the six-month term ends this month, there are really only two possibilities: either they reorganize under a new structure or they extend their term again. If they are serious about holding elections, they might opt to transition to a different format. That’s the kind of scenario we’re analyzing,” the representative said.
Although the junta continues to insist that elections will be held, the exact timeline remains unclear. Analysts say developments in the final days of July will be key to understanding the junta’s next move.
Meanwhile, the junta-controlled Union Election Commission (UEC) has announced plans to organize elections in 267 townships, but no specific date has been confirmed.
