An election is a fundamental part of a democratic system; however, under the current circumstances, there are serious concerns, said Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt, spokesperson for the EAO Alliance—a coalition of seven ethnic armed organizations that have signed ceasefire agreements.
While some political parties and neighboring countries accept the military junta’s planned election, others strongly oppose it, raising concerns that the process may do more harm than good, he said.
“As we understand it, elections are an essential part of the democratic process—something that must be undertaken without fail. For any election to be meaningful, public participation is crucial, and it must be held in a stable and peaceful environment. However, given the current situation in our country, such public engagement is unlikely, and regional stability has severely deteriorated. To speak frankly, we have serious concerns about holding elections under these conditions,” said Colonel Saw Kyaw Nyunt.
The military junta has announced plans to hold an election either in December 2025 or January 2026.
According to Nai Htun Lwin from the Mon Unity Party, only Ye Township in Mon State may face difficulties in holding an election, whereas the rest of the state is prepared to proceed.
“As for Mon State, we can say it is still better off compared to other regions. Regardless of the situation, the areas under our control remain more extensive than elsewhere. For example, compared to Karen State or Tanintharyi Region, we are somewhat better off. Other major regions—like Yangon and Ayeyarwady—are also more stable in their own ways,” he said.
Currently, intense armed conflict is raging across the country, and military junta forces are reportedly conducting daily airstrikes and using heavy weaponry.
According to Myanmar political analyst U Gyi Myint, China is exerting pressure on ethnic armed groups in northern Shan State, while the military junta is attacking them with new weapons—all to ensure the upcoming election can take place.
“He’s been preparing to use new weapons. When the MNDAA withdrew, it gave them the confidence to pressure the TNLA. Likewise, China wants the TNLA to pull back from Nawnghkio and Kyaukme. So, the pressure is on. However, the TNLA is resisting with strength. Given these circumstances, the military junta wants to hold the election in Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, and, if possible, Lashio. Since China also sees the election as important, it is supporting these efforts,” he said.
Analysts suggest that, in addition to planning for elections, the military junta may also launch offensives to regain control of areas along key border trade routes currently held by ethnic armed groups.
The election—which could serve as a political exit strategy for the military junta—is being opposed by resistance forces, and the National Unity Government (NUG) has also stated that it will do everything in its power to prevent it from taking place.
