— Interview with U Maung Maung Soe , Myanmar political analyst
Recently, the Mon News Agency (MNA) Editor, Nai Banyar Aung interviewed U Maung Maung Soe, a Myanmar political analyst, on the issue of the Peace Conference, scheduled for late July, 2020.
Here is an edited transcript of the interview.
MNA : It appears the government is in a hurry to hold the 4th round of the 21st Century Panglong Conference in July. This would be just before the general election. With the ongoing Covid-19 crisis, this creates a complicated situation for the public. Is any side ready to hold this conference? What analysis can you offer regarding this situation?
U Maung Maung Soe: I think, the reason why they are in a hurry is due to anticipated changes in government after the 2020 elections, and changes within the Tatmadaw [Burma army]. Because of these changes, there would be some guaranteed points and agreements that could be brought to the next government.
They are in a hurry, and they are preparing to hold a brief or shortened 4th conference. There won’t be any possibilities to have a National Level Conference and National Level Discussions as longer form. [But] these will be all done in an abbreviated form.
I think the NLD government is in a hurry to have the conference before the elections so that they can present to the electorate how they plan to carry out agreements [resulting] from the conference.
But that will not be that much different. If we look back, during the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) government, President Thein Sein pushed for the signing of the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) before the elections. They showed the public they had had a peace[ful] result. So, that is why they [NLD government] are in a hurry for the conference.
In fact, there will be 3 months — January, February and March, 2021, before power is handed over to the new government, and the elections will be finished by November /December, 2020. It’ll be much better to have the conference during this 3-month period. This is because by that time, we will know the result of the election.
Regarding changes within the Tatmadaw, what we can guess is ….the current government and ethnic armed groups will settle for what will be carried on [in the following term].
If we talk about the ethnic armed groups, I think it’s better to have the Peace conference in January, February or March, 2021. This is because they could then see the electoral changes, and ethnic groups or EAOs could make better decisions on what agreements they should take.
Although the EAOs might assume that it is necessary to lay down if there is a new government and to communicate with the new government, I think it is much more necessary for the EAOs to prepare and deal with if there are any changes.
MNA: Thank you very much.
